В отличие от многих пессимистов, TM не предлагал1 бояться инфляции, снижения ВВП и провального второго квартала.
Теперь можно суммировать постфактум почему именно лето выдалось спокойным.
С этим мне поможет команда Криса Хасси (Chris Hussey) из GS:
In the US, summer is traditionally defined as the 3 months (or so) between Memorial Day and Labor Day. And as we head into Labor Day weekend, we take a look at how stocks have performed over this 'summer' stretch: and the conclusion is strong. The S&P 500 has gained about 7% since Memorial Day, fueled by a strong 2Q23 earnings season and a growing realization that the US economy is unlikely to slip into recession: 2 factors that were not widely anticipated way back in late-May2. Second quarter EPS declined by only 4% for the S&P 500 versus a -9% expectation going into results. And our economists lowered our subjective probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 20% (barely above the 15% likelihood of a recession that we find in any given year.
August, however, was a much tougher month for markets than June and July as investors had to negotiate around a sharp rise in US sovereign bond yields. The growing realization that growth is coming in at a more sustained high level, coupled with Japan's signals that it may soon remove yield curve control put upward pressure on US rates.
But legging out of August and into September, rates have subsided again — yields on 10-year US Treasuries are still elevated but back down to 4.16% (after peaking at 4.34% in August).
Марко, Майк, Майкл, всех обнимаю.