EPS
Про потенциал охлаждения EPS
Собирался написать про будущее охлаждение EPS, но меня опередил Майк (Mike Wilson, US Equity Strategist from Morgan Stanley). Спасибо ему за это.
...it appears that companies are over-earning as government subsidies have provided a huge windfall in operating leverage and profits. Normally the market would discount such earnings with a lower multiple and while that has happened for many sectors and individual stocks it has yet to happen at the index level. Until money stops flowing into equities from retail and other asset owners deciding there is no other alternative, the index level multiple and price may remain elevated. Timing is everything as they say and while our timing on the P/E compression call has yet to play out, that doesn't mean it's not going to happen.
Медвежий Майк (Mike Wilson, US Equity Strategiest at MS) считает, что впереди пятнадцатипроцентная коррекция:
«Our Rates strategists have a 1.8% year-end target for 10-year Treasury yields, but that may prove to be conservative if the Fed is forced to move faster than what the bond market is currently pricing. When looking at prior cycles, the Fed was already either raising rates or tapering asset purchases when the unemployment rate was this low.
...Assuming the ERP stays at 350bps, that would imply P/Es will fall approximately 10% from current levels. If the ERP moves to its average of 425bps since the GFC, when the financial repression era began, the P/E could fall more than 20%. We think the outcome lies in between, with the S&P 500 P/E falling toward 18x by year end.
...It's never different, in our view, but the path and pace of how we get there can be. As discussed previously, we think that path just took a major turn with the strong jobs report...we think consensus earnings estimates next year have baked in unrealistic margin assumptions in many sectors and at the overall index level. This is another reason why P/Es are likely too high.»